2005 will be remembered for a particularly poor election, if the election’s remembered at all, lacking any ideas, let alone big awe inspiring ones. For some reason, I’ve not shared others’ certainty of a Labour victory. While Sporting Index, the spread betting site, is forecasting a majority of 87-94 at time of writing, I’m still nervous (and wavering). A Lib-Lab pact would be no bad thing, but Tories… well… they’re just so inept and prone to knee jerk populist nonsense. Let’s hope they take time out for a long lie down after tonight’s counts.

I’ve been able to suggest betting as means to liven other things up a couple of times (bet on Big Brother or celebrity wresting) but most traditional bookies (like Totesport) and even exchange betting sites (like Betfair) aren’t interested. So this has been an election for spread betting, whose great strength is that you don’t have to back a winner in a two horse race, but on number of seats won per party, say, goals scored in a match or a horse’s finishing position. In other words, stuff that’s genuinely up for debate.

Trust the bookies. They’re likely to be far more accurate than opinion polls. And that’s not just true of election results, but any kind of sporting event or financial market (Capital Spreads offer a good guide to financial spread betting here). A good bookie plays a very small role in determining the odds. It’s all down to demand for particular bets and they merely enable a fluid market to emerge. So odds aren’t the views of funny little men normally found waving their arms around at edges of racecourses, but the combined opinions of every punter. And each punter, by virtue of having put some money where their mouth is, is an expert in their own mind who’s factored in opinion polls, racecourse conditions or whatever.

When the opinion polls named Kerry president, the bets went with Bush (no crumbs of comfort for the Tories though).
Spread betting: financial or sport… free bet
ADS: Have a Free £25 bet on Totesport: a traditional bookie…… Winners always welcome at Betfair: exchange betting……tax free stockmarket trading: spread betting……

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