A young couple are stocking up on Fosters. She says: ‘No we’re not getting Stella. Or I’ll be battering you at the end of the night.’

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Poor old Kenneth Branagh. Wasn’t he once a great hope for Britain in Hollywood; making a kind of super couple with Emma Thompson?

Now he’s doing Sunday night TV drama, Wallander. Perhaps I’m a snob (and, hey, I might even watch it if there’s nothing else on), but surely this is something of a come down.

‘The hardest questions a detective asks, are the ones he asks himself,’ runs the promo. Cut to tearful Branagh with gun: ‘Wha-ah-iy?’

For some reason this cracks me up every time.

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For months I drove past St Clement’s Church, spotted the Chorlton Film Institute banner and meant to Google them. But by the time I got home I’d have forgotten. So Katharine and I are late converts to the magic of Chorlton Film Institute.

As it happens the institute is not very good at keeping its wiki or blog up-to-date, but never mind; last week’s showing of The Black Dahlia was very well attended.

Strangely, while the Chorlton Film Institute describes itself as an exercise in guerrilla cinema, it doesn’t fit any of its own definitions. The films are shown at the same time of the month in the same place for a fee. But again, never mind, it’s fun somehow to see a film in an improvised setting.

St Clement’s makes for an impressive space, far away from the dreary church hall you might imagine, it’s both warm impressive. The screen is nice and big, but the sound (perhaps inevitably) suffers from a touch of echo. More importantly it creates an element of novelty that makes going to see a film that bit more fun.

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‘The recession has to take its course… bad debts have to be written off, bad investments have to be written off and people and businesses need to repair their balance sheets. The Prime Minister knows that…’
– John Maples MP, deputy chair Conservative Party
‘I would personally like to explain and apologise for a phrase I used on Monday, which was that the recession must take its course. I realise that may have caused offence to people who are the victims of the recession…’
– John Maples MP, deputy chair Conservative Party

I’ve some sympathy for ConservativeHome readers who think poor old John Maples should not have apologised for saying the recession should be left to run its course. Not because he’s right, but because he’s merely saying what many Tories think. Gordon Brown was right to take Maples to task, but if Maples had anything about him, he’d have stood up for himself. Instead he flip-flopped to a position that surely places him at odds with the shadow chancellor: ‘I did not mean to convey the impression that the Government should not help victims of the recession. I fully support borrowing to do that.’

Whatever happened to Conservatives with the balls to say: ‘If higher unemployment is the price we have to pay in order to bring inflation down, then it is a price worth paying.’?

Unemployment is not a price worth paying, but we are going through a necessary correction. There are few sustainable ecosystems in nature and succession is often violent, sudden and dramatic. And markets are forces of nature; bubbles grow and bubbles burst.

There is no reason to believe the market outcome will be at all desirable but fortunately, markets do react to regulation and government intervention. Recession creates opportunities for government to invest, employing workers the private sector no longer needs on big construction projects, say. Government can borrow when the private sector can’t to arrest the decline in demand and so save businesses and the jobs that depend on them.

This bubble was spotted well ahead. It was well known that people were taking out mortgages they could not afford and building up credit card debt well beyond their means; it was the only way they could keep up with their peers and everyone else was doing the same. Banks and their customers were behaving irresponsibly. Pressure built up to a tipping point and dramatic consequences followed, first in the USA but spreading quickly throughout the capitalist world.

Labour could do nothing to prevent this without international support, which would never come from a Bush White House or a Europe of centre right regimes. Meanwhile, despite all that has happened, the Tories still cannot claim to be pro-regulation. Just the opposite, even now they oppose government intervention to smooth out this trough.

Fortunately, a far more progressive consensus is beginning to emerge. Obama is talking of a $400bn to $700bn stimulus package. Per capita that’s around $1,300 to $2,290; per capita the UK’s package is worth a little more than $500.

Partly this illustrates how much worse things are for America. It’s also evidence that Obama may be as bold as he promised… let’s hope that inspires the rest of world’s leaders including our own.

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Once again the headlines are full of doom and gloom as a desperate Marks & Spencer discounts heavily in the run up to Christmas… just the time of year they should turning shoppers away for being too busy… OMG!

But those of us who watch the retail sector closely, and whose memories stretch back a year or two, have come to expect this. The slow start to Christmas has become a seasonal news story up with the snow that will bring the country to a halt at the end of January and the sunny day that will crowd the beaches in May.

Consider Forbes from December 2007: ‘UK retailers step-up Christmas discounting as consumer confidence falls’. And then the Telegraph from February 2008: ‘Retail sector rebounds on aggressive sales’.

Radio and TV news will always fill their vox pops with people who are struggling as many who work can’t get to the shops when journalists visit. Away from the anecdotes we find: ‘High street sales rise defies gloomy outlook,’ in today’s Times.

Christmas isn’t what it was. Few wait until Christmas Day to receive the latest gadgets from family, but buy the stuff they want when they want it. That’s why everyone’s so difficult to buy for. We tend to spend the real money on ourselves in the sales afterwards, avoiding Christmas when everything is more usually full price.

Younger people, lucky enough not to remember recession, drive consumer spending. They might be spooked into tightening their belts for a short time, but will soon be tempted into returning to old habits. Anecdotally, I was struck by how quiet Chorlton, the suburb of Manchester where I live which is famed for its bars and restaurants, was a few weeks ago. But last weekend we were turned away from restaurants too busy to take us. People simply can’t keep their belts tightened and are already returning to their old hedonistic ways.

Some are worried that Gordon Brown’s turned reckless gambler, but I’m more worried that they’re falling for economically illiterate Tory propaganda. Government debt is at a record, but it’s more affordable than ever. Just as someone who earns £40k can afford to borrow more than someone who earns £20k, so the country can afford to borrow more today as its income has grown. In 1993, the Tories borrowed £51bn as they belated got to grips with a recession that began two years earlier; allowing for inflation and economic growth that’s equivalent to £110bn today. On current plans, Labour is expected to borrow only £64bn and while that figure is likely to rise a fair bit, the idea that the country’s overly indebted is a myth.

Over in the US where the trouble began, car manufacturers grab headlines as they beg for money, but industrial output is up. A Tory MP complains a weak pound makes holidays expensive, while a former Tory chancellor concedes it will help in the long run as it helps exporters.

New Year is likely, once again, to see the retail sector bounce back and we’ll soon learn how much manufacturers have benefitted from the weak pound. The trick will be to ensure next week’s stimulus package gets the credit… and not let Tories forget that their planned cuts in spending and the unemployment they’d cause, would throw the recovery into reverse.

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The part nationalisation of the banking system has come because banks the world over lent irresponsibly to people who couldn’t repay them. Bankers gambled that rising profits would cancel out rising bad debts and that if it all went pear shaped government would step in. They got that latter gamble right, with only the most extreme ideologues prepared to let the system collapse on a point of principle.

Given the coverage, you might be forgiven for thinking the government was simply giving taxpayers’ money away. In fact, it’s looking to invest £9bn in the merged Lloyds TSB HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland, at twelve per cent a year, which looks like a good investment. It was hard to have any sympathy for the small Lloyds TSB shareholder complaining on the news that his watered down holding would be virtually worthless; shareholders endorsed the banks’ reckless behaviour, taking profits in the good times. Sadly that means taking the hit when it all goes wrong.

But what’s harder to understand is Alistair Darling’s hostility to an independent HBOS. This takeover was agreed before the government had settled on its strategy for the banking crisis and setting aside competition rules always looked expedient.

Allowing capital to consolidate is always a bad thing and immediately puts jobs at risk.

Longer term this new super bank is likely to be powerful enough to restrict competition and distort the market. Once the dust has settled the government – as branch closures begin and an uncompetitive product offerings emerge – will almost certainly need to break Lloyds TSB HBOS up again.

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All the smart money is on a cut in VAT next week as the government’s challenged to inject cash into the economy.

In the US tax rebates have been predictably disappointing with less than half spent. Predictably, because if the president says ‘This sucker could go down!’ and that sucker includes your job, putting a little aside may be more of a priority than creating work for others. Over in Taiwan the government’s handing out shopping vouchers, but that’s a little gimmicky.

VAT is an obvious target because it can be cut with very little notice and immediately reduces prices in the shops, people have to spend rather than save to benefit and as it’s a regressive form of taxation that’s harder for poorer people to afford, cutting VAT is a social good.

But if we really need to get people excited a VAT holiday is the way to go with VAT cut deep but for a clearly defined period. Done right the resulting sale mentality will encourage shoppers to bring forward their purchases; upgrading their TVs now rather than later, paying for holidays before the tax comes back and – here’s a big one – enjoying cheaper fuel through the winter. Hell, the shops would need to staff up to cope with demand and everyone’s cash flow would be much healthier by the end of it.

And a nice side effect would be that having gone for the ‘tax cuts should be for life not just for Christmas’ soundbite Cameron would be left fuming that it’s Tory policy that’s attracting the Mickey Mouse jibes.

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‘… an enthusiastic Tory backbencher like me can hardly wait to switch on the Today programme every morning in order to listen to all the bad news.’
– David Cameron (January 2002)

In January 2002 David Cameron was a naive backbencher hoping for a really big crisis to bring the government down. By now he should have learnt to be careful about what he wishes for, but the election strategy he’s drawn up with bezzy mate George Osborne remains dependent on Labour slipping up and losing, rather the Tories stepping up and winning.

At first sight it is perverse that as we brace ourselves for recession it’s shadow chancellor George Osborne who is facing calls to quit. Events seem so unfair to some Tories that they’re calling foul: ‘Labour want to destroy Osborne to cheer Gordon Brown,’ whinges PragueTory; ‘Brown is out to destroy us,’ complains Iain Dale. Let’s hope they’re both right.

Last week, in keeping with the Cameron/Osborne philosophy of making minimal policy commitments, Cameron (not Osborne) promised revenue neutral national insurance holidays to businesses taking on the long term unemployed. Small suggestions like this, which fail to recognise the complexities of getting the long term unemployed into work and ignore the immediate crisis, are unlikely to excite anyone.

Set against a backdrop of Gordon Brown returning from Washington heralding a route map to save the world, the Conservatives could not look more pathetic.

So with Alistair Darling set to unveil the pre-budget report next week, when David Cameron finally stepped up to the plate this morning it should have been to say something big. Instead, he made an announcement that will matter only to political anoraks and will hardly register with the voters he needs to win over: a Conservative government would not honour Labour’s spending plans, but would develop plans of its own. The Sunday Telegraph had this story at the weekend; Oliver Letwin has been appointed to develop the new policy as Osborne isn’t up to it.

Back in January 2002, had some soothsayer told David Cameron of the events that would greet Gordon Brown in the early days of his premiership, he may well have wet himself in excitement. Summer through to autumn 2007 saw the bombing of Glasgow Airport, floods and foot and mouth. Yet the prime minister performed so well, Telegraph opinion writers fretted that the Brown Bounce would deliver Labour a victory of 1997 proportions.

This period should have taught Cameron and Osborne that the ‘wait for Labour to fail’ strategy was high risk and too dependent on events outside their control.

Should we enter the New Year with Labour back ahead in the polls, election fever will be rife once again. And, hopefully, Gordon Brown will have learnt from his mishandling of the election speculation of autumn 2007. Instead of tedious leadership speculation and populist fag packet manifestos, May or June 2009 may well see a fourth Labour victory.

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I’m sure I’m not the only one feeling a bit conned by last night’s Antiques Roadshow. Much hyped as the first £1m find in the programme’s history.

Along with 10 million other mugs Katharine and I sat through several teases, the painting used in the publicity shots, a 400 year old chest, some Francis Bacon and more.

And when it turned out to be a model of the Angel of the North, we thought it must be another ruse. After all the model wasn’t discovered by the TV show at all, but has always belonged to Gateshead Council, having been used to persuade councillors to commission the project.

‘Councillor John McElroy, the cabinet member for culture and art, was speechless as Philip Mould, a fine art expert, made the shock announcement,’ reports the Telegraph. Well we missed that; he clearly knew all along!

Immediately after was some Fabergé . Ah! We thought, this is the real £1m find. But no. What nonsense. Next time they visit London, they’ll probably drag those Titians out of the National Gallery.

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You’ve seven days to listen again to From Manchester to the Mississippi in which CP Lee, himself a Manchester institution, explains the pivotal role a unique concert at Chorlton-cum Hardy train station played in introducing music of black origin to Britain.

Strangely they keep referring to Chorltonville, the nearby former garden city, but no matter. Here we have further evidence that Chorlton has always been Manchester’s trendiest suburb.

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